My GCP - Less the GP and 8 days late - Week 3

My gut was full of beer and my pick was whiskey, so trust me when I say that you only want to see what my computer said in Week 3. Here's to recap where it would've pointed us:

My Computer - where it tells me I should be looking:

Northern Illinois (-3) at Army- Computer says Northern Illinois should be -12. LOSS

Wake Forest (+28) at Florida State -  Computer says Wake Forest should only be +20. HaHa. LOSS

Miami (OH) at Boise St (-21) - Computer says Boise State should be -29. WIN

Bowling Green at Toledo (-3.5) - I love me some Toledo. Computer says Toledo should be-10. WIN

Louisiana-Monroe (+16) at Auburn - Computer says Louisiana-Monroe should only be +9.5. WIN

Idaho at LSU (-42) - Would never do this normally but I'm starting to blindly trust. Computer said LSU should actually be -48.5. WIN

COMPUTER RESULTS:
WEEK 3 ATS:     4-2
SEASON ATS:  13-5

 

3 weeks is a coincidence. 4 weeks is a system.

SHARPsquares NCAA Power Rankings - Week 4

Well, besides putting out the rankings last week, I took the weekend off to enjoy/recover from one of the greatest parties disguised as a wedding I've ever been too. And anyone who had the displeasure of being around me last weekend knows I wasn't worth listening to about anything. So be glad you did without.

Updating the season totals is ugly, but remember that we're focusing on the anomalies here, not focusing on betting every single game like we used to. So check out my next post to see what I'm talking about there. Best of luck.

1		Alabama	89.906
2		LSU	86.316
3		USC	81.911
4		Oregon	79.396
5		Oklahoma	79.363
6		Georgia	77.061
7		Stanford	77.056
8		South Carolina	76.861
9		Kansas St	76.148
10		Michigan St	76.070
11		Florida St	75.918
12		West Virginia	75.258
13		Ohio St	75.254
14		Texas	75.118
15		Boise St	74.889
16		Notre Dame	74.731
17		TCU	73.945
18		Oklahoma St	73.357
19		Baylor	73.141
20		Florida	71.790
21		Wisconsin	71.766
22		Nebraska	71.708
23		BYU	71.238
24		Mississippi St	71.052
25		Clemson	70.706
26		Michigan	70.007
27		Virginia Tech	69.595
28		Arkansas	69.058
29		Texas Tech	69.006
30		Arizona St	68.745
31		Arizona	68.611
32		Texas A&M	68.544
33		Tennessee	68.215
34		UCLA	68.143
35		Louisville	67.822
36		Cincinnati	67.481
37		Iowa St	67.101
38		Missouri	66.744
39		USF	66.283
40		Oregon St	66.230
41		Georgia Tech	66.010
42		Nevada	64.506
43		Utah	64.353
44		Purdue	64.273
45		Northwestern	64.200
46		Iowa	63.939
47		Ohio	63.880
48		Tulsa	63.856
49		Auburn	63.729
50		Louisiana Tech	63.513
51		NC State	63.510
52		North Carolina	63.461
53		Miami (FL)	62.833
54		Washington	62.773
55		UCF	62.370
56		Vanderbilt	62.277
57		California	61.494
58		Utah St	60.849
59		Northern Illinois	60.553
60		Rutgers	60.493
61		Illinois	60.184
62		Southern Miss	60.161
63		Virginia	60.058
64		Toledo	59.798
65		Boston College	59.761
66		Connecticut	59.120
67		Kentucky	58.899
68		Wake Forest	58.765
69		San Diego St	58.743
70		Penn St	58.665
71		Air Force	58.251
72		Mississippi	58.091
73		Louisiana	57.901
74		Syracuse	57.542
75		SMU	57.485
76		Fresno St	57.344
77		ULM	57.201
78		Maryland	56.896
79		San Jose St	56.714
80		Houston	56.229
81		Minnesota	56.104
82		Temple	55.803
83		Western Michigan	55.025
84		Washington St	54.758
85		Pittsburgh	54.159
86		WKU	53.993
87		Duke	53.614
88		East Carolina	53.050
89		Wyoming	52.946
90		Arkansas St	52.637
91		Bowling Green	52.281
92		Navy	51.845
93		Indiana	51.687
94		Marshall	51.004
95		North Texas	50.348
96		Hawaii	50.222
97		Kansas	49.105
98		Ball St	48.987
99		Miami (OH)	48.689
100		UTEP	48.598
101		Rice	48.124
102		Troy	46.579
103		Colorado St	46.451
104		Buffalo	45.795
105		FIU	45.760
106		Army	45.614
107		Kent St	45.555
108		Colorado	45.200
109		New Mexico St	44.816
110		Central Michigan	43.545
111		Texas St	42.192
112		Eastern Michigan	41.364
113		Idaho	40.419
114		UNLV	39.945
115		UAB	39.497
116		Middle Tennessee	39.398
117		New Mexico	38.481
118		Memphis	36.857
119		Tulane	36.795
120		UTSA	34.060
121		Florida Atlantic	33.247
122		South Alabama	31.776
123		Massachusetts	30.856
124		Akron	30.719

Week 3 ATS: 17-30
Season ATS: 56-77

Week 3 SU: 37-10
Season SU: 100-33

Hello ladies...

Well…That sucked

What a weekend for football!  Peyton looked like he never played the game through the first half, Kentucky completely and utterly regressed back to the days of old losing to teams they have no business even being close with, and Arkansas continued to prove my one good call this year getting drilled by Alabama.  But this weekend is where everyone redeems themselves.  I don’t wager on UK games, but if I did, Saturday’s game in The Swamp is the definition of a trap game.  Coming off an emotional prime time win in a hostile environment, then having the #2 team in the country the week after this game could make for a fun game at Florida.  Look for UK to cover the ridiculous spread and keep it close…seriously.

                I will take a little time this week to laugh at The Ville (they coined their own nickname, isn’t that cute, really, no one calls you that).  After leaving Conference USA and joining the Big East, the Cardinals thought they would be in prime real estate to dominate a pretty weak conference for years to come.  Fast forward seven years, and the Big East is looking like Conference USA.  Everyone that is worth anything is jumping ship to greener pastures, and Louisville is left alone at the party looking for the desperate girl that looks just pretty enough in the dark.  With the latest losses to the conference there is no way they deserve any respect at all in football.  They are even losing all respect they had built up in basketball.  You can look here about halfway down the page to see who is left.  With the upcoming playoffs in college football, the historical bowls are realigning to get the best they can, and the Orange bowl has all but dropped the Big East as an auto-qualifier, and replaced them with an ACC team (not the #1 ACC team) and I believe the #4 SEC team.  That’s just sad that those two get picked over you.

I’m rambling here.  I just wanted to laugh at the commuter school down the road.  Keep drinking your Crown Royal and throwing your “L’s” up and complaining how you get no respect while losing to FIU and Marshall.  Teddy Bridgewater is a good QB, not a great one.  Please win your conference outright before saying you should be ranked in the top 5.  Please beat a ranked team before saying you should be top 5.  Please stop saying “no one will play us”.  They won’t play you because you aren’t worth it.

PICK TIME!!!

Clemson @ Florida St. (-14.5)

This will be a VERY good game in my opinion.  Florida St. will finally be exposed for the good, not great team that everyone thinks they are.  Look for a close game until Clemson’s speed takes over in the 4^th quarter.

Take Clemson at (+14.5)  Bet a healthy amount.  Save sun for Sunday.

Maryland @ West Virginia (-27)

I tend to stay away from spreads this big, but I think West Virginia could play Alabama in the title game in January. 

Take West Virginia at (-27)  Put a little on this to offset some other close ones.

Michigan @ Notre Dame (-4.5)

What little of the Irish I have watched they have looked really good.  What little I have seen of the Wolverines, they looked very beatable.

Take Notre Dame at (-4.5)  That bit you saved from WV?  Unload it plus some.  Night game at ND?  Duh

NFL

49ers (-6.5) @ Vikings                   This can’t be a real line.  49ers…Take out a loan!

Lions (-3.5) @ Titans                      Is Vegas messing with us?  The Titans are AWFUL.  Deed to the house!

Patriots @ Ravens (-3)                  Even money baby!  Ravens by 14 easy!

NCAA Record (2-5)

NFL Record (1-2)

It gets better…I promise!  (Seems like I’ve said that to some women before too…)

this wolf ain't worth the fight

“And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music.” --Friedrich Nietzsche

                I have to light up the musica side of this blog since it has recently become overrun with picks and power rankings and the like. I don’t mean to return to Bowerbirds because they’re my favorite band, but they just happen to be who I’m thinking about in this moment, and in many other moments since I first listened to a certain song of theirs. And by listen I mean transcend, so to speak, because until you’ve done that with a song, you’ve really just heard it.

                Let me give you the background—then I’ll give you the song. Two Christmases ago was spent for me in Minnesota, as it was understood that it would be my grandpa’s last. After 4 days of coop in my grandparent’s house, a lot of inane conversation, and 17 rounds of Kings in the Corner, I decided I wanted to get out for a bit. It was late and there was no place to go except the movies. I couldn’t round up a cousin to go with me, so I went by myself. That’s a lie, I didn’t ask anyone to go with me. I fish-tailed my way from the Minnesota border to North Dakota and went to see a midnight showing of Black Swan by myself on Christmas night.

                After the movie, I decided I wanted to smoke a cigarette, so I went to a gas station on sort of a remote road, because that’s what you do when you’re in unfamiliar territory at 2 o’clock in the morning. I bought the cigarettes, felt guilty about it, and returned to the car. I sat in the driver’s seat and took out my iPod, because I didn’t want to fool with my grandma’s AM stations. I put on Bowerbirds’ The Ticonderoga, and just sat in the car and listened, the sky black and the dirty snow a pale resemblance, wondering about the people who trucked in and out of that gas station. The lyrics didn’t pertain to anything or anyone I knew or ever had known, but I thought about my life in those 4 + minutes, then played it again because sometimes you need more than 4 minutes. I thought about how strange it was that it was Christmas and I was in a parking lot in my grandma’s ’97 Park Avenue, wearing her boots because I hadn’t packed appropriate shoes for a winter in Minnesota. I thought about how 5 days ago I had been home with my husband, folding laundry and watching something on cable television, walking my dog, the norm. And now I was in Fargo, Fargo of all places, listening to my iPod, freezing despite the heat emitting from the giant leather seat beneath me. I thought about my grandpa, and my parents, and wondered if any of them had ever had a moment in a parking lot or a room or a bus where they thought about their lives, and who they were, and what they still wanted to be. Maybe this is weird, that I listened to this song alone with my thoughts and too-tight shoes in the middle of this random place. But life is weird, and music can be weird, and I don’t know how living daydreams without music or not seeing life in terms of notes could ever be regular.

                So each time I hear The Ticonderoga, I’m brought back to that night, when too afraid to be outside of my car in that lot, I smoked my one cigarette outside of my grandparents' garage, later praying for more snow to screen the ash. I do love Bowerbirds, especially their softer cuts, in particular this one, a tale of destruction and willingness to allow it, or something like that.  It isn’t just a hymn for a dark horse, but for a 26-year-old girl completely satisfied with the life’s she’s in, but also welcoming of a parking lot in Fargo, where for 8 minutes she can reflect a little, then go back.

SHARPsquares NCAA Power Rankings - Week 3

Watch out now! In a very sneaky way, the computer picks have become a go-to. 9-3 over the last two weeks on the 6 biggest line discrepancies each week. I know you can't tell, but I'm smiling.

So here you go with Week 3. Some movement around some of the upsets last week. Sneak peak says there are some huge discrepancies to play with for the upcoming week. Add 2.75 points to any spread to account for home-field advantage. Best of luck.

1	Alabama	89.872
2	LSU	84.325
3	USC	83.928
4	Oklahoma St	81.024
5	Oregon	80.807
6	Oklahoma	80.554
7	Florida St	77.512
8	Arkansas	76.525
9	Wisconsin	75.680
10	Notre Dame	75.479
11	Stanford	75.232
12	West Virginia	74.477
13	Ohio St	74.179
14	TCU	74.136
15	South Carolina	74.114
16	Nebraska	74.029
17	Georgia	74.012
18	Michigan St	73.926
19	Boise St	73.856
20	Texas	73.770
21	Michigan	72.049
22	Florida	71.713
23	Baylor	71.546
24	Texas A&M	71.486
25	Missouri	71.424
26	Virginia Tech	71.351
27	Kansas St	70.929
28	Clemson	70.102
29	Tennessee	68.855
30	BYU	68.844
31	Auburn	68.553
32	Utah	67.957
33	Mississippi St	67.747
34	North Carolina	65.826
35	Georgia Tech	65.660
36	Miami (FL)	65.382
37	Cincinnati	65.068
38	Louisville	64.926
39	Vanderbilt	64.474
40	Nevada	64.429
41	Iowa	63.950
42	Washington	63.822
43	Texas Tech	63.768
44	USF	63.755
45	Iowa St	63.409
46	Louisiana Tech	63.226
47	NC State	63.160
48	California	62.662
49	Illinois	62.638
50	UCLA	62.346
51	Rutgers	62.270
52	Houston	62.061
53	Oregon St	61.777
54	Connecticut	61.138
55	Purdue	61.095
56	Arizona St	60.981
57	Tulsa	60.902
58	UCF	60.761
59	Southern Miss	60.388
60	Arizona	60.155
61	Ohio	59.948
62	Boston College	59.759
63	Northern Illinois	59.241
64	Temple	59.237
65	Northwestern	59.031
66	Virginia	58.429
67	Pittsburgh	58.134
68	Penn St	58.026
69	Toledo	55.801
70	Duke	55.747
71	Air Force	55.479
72	Wake Forest	55.262
73	San Diego St	54.862
74	Utah St	54.776
75	Syracuse	54.208
76	Washington St	54.188
77	Mississippi	54.101
78	Western Michigan	53.835
79	Arkansas St	53.756
80	Fresno St	53.560
81	SMU	53.395
82	Kentucky	53.363
83	East Carolina	53.122
84	Wyoming	52.963
85	Bowling Green	52.745
86	San Jose St	52.329
87	Minnesota	52.318
88	Louisiana	52.117
89	Navy	51.523
90	Maryland	51.336
91	WKU	50.527
92	Marshall	50.468
93	Kansas	50.193
94	Army	50.097
95	UTEP	49.798
96	Ball St	49.633
97	FIU	49.419
98	Kent St	49.253
99	Hawaii	48.606
100	Colorado	48.599
101	Miami (OH)	48.504
102	North Texas	48.372
103	ULM	48.027
104	Colorado St	46.865
105	Troy	46.653
106	Indiana	46.206
107	Eastern Michigan	44.442
108	Central Michigan	44.185
109	Buffalo	44.176
110	Rice	42.729
111	New Mexico St	40.963
112	Texas St	40.616
113	Idaho	39.585
114	UNLV	39.274
115	UAB	38.018
116	Tulane	37.664
117	New Mexico	37.233
118	Middle Tennessee	34.754
119	Massachusetts	33.462
120	UTSA	33.322
121	Florida Atlantic	33.182
122	Memphis	31.924
123	South Alabama	31.511
124	Akron	25.819

Week 2 ATS: 20-25
Season ATS: 39-47

Week 2 SU: 30-15
Season SU: 63-23