8.31.2012

NCAA...HAHA












                Once again, the NCAA shows their true colors and complete favoritism toward certain schools.  Let’s take a quick look at some of their recent rulings.

Derrick Rose
                Accused of cheating on the SAT by having someone else take the test for him.  NOTHING was EVER proved.  There was only speculation during the entire investigation.  The NCAA cleared Rose, TWICE!  Then decided without any evidence to strip Memphis of their Final Four run and vacate the wins from Rose’s one season at Memphis after the season had concluded.

Enes Kanter
                Took money from a professional team in Turkey.  This much is fact.  He also asked to pay the money back in order to play college basketball in the US.  The NCAA denied his request of repayment and ruled him ineligible for the 2011-2012 college basketball season.  (This is the same year Josh Selby, a United States citizen who has been here his whole life, and knew the amateur rules as a high profile high school player, took money from an agent.  He ‘repaid’ the money to the NCAA and was allowed to play with a small suspension at the beginning of the season.  Where did he get the money if he didn’t have it the first time around?)

Penn State
                Everything has been said about this that can be said.  I completely agree that Penn State deserved the punishment they received.  However…Where did the NCAA get the authority to basically hand out the death penalty when it comes to criminal proceedings?  The NCAA set a precedent in this case that they will bow to the media pressure and hand out rulings as they see fit.

UNC
                The whole reason for this post is based on the ruling that the NCAA released today in regards to the UNC academic scandal.  Let’s look at the facts.  UNC made classes up for football and basketball players to ‘attend’ in order to keep their APR on the good side of things.  UNC handed out grades to these players as well to keep them eligible.  This went on for…wait for it…OVER A DECADE!  The NCAA ruling?  Nothing…  These are facts people.  These aren’t speculation.  It is proven that the violations mentioned above took place.  My view?  UNC is a highly regarded academic institution with far reaching and deep pocketed alumni.  Why even wait for ALL the facts to come out before making a ruling?  Let’s just go ahead and say everything is ok to us (the NCAA).

                In conclusion, the NCAA can be equated to our current government (oh God, he mentioned politics!).  Do what the people that have the most money say.  I’ll save the political rant for later when my fellow writers have time to respond.  But back to college sports.  Memphis?  Smaller D-1 school, hammer them.  UK?  Always cheated throughout history and we hate Calipari.  Investigate everything after the fact so we can vacate wins.  Penn State?  This is all over the news and internet.  We have to do something here in order to set a precedent that we will hammer schools even though, in this case, we have no jurisdiction honestly.  UNC?  Nah, let’s let academic fraud slide.  Another funny thing to think of; the NCAA took the time and man power to send a letter to Calipari condemning UK’s celebration of his 500th win….  Now you tell me there isn’t a need to get rid of the NCAA and try to start over with a credible group of people that aren’t making 7 figures while the people they sanction make nothing.

Disclaimer:  I am a UK fan, obviously.  I just don’t have the time or drive to look into all the other shortcomings of the NCAA.


PICK TIME!

Last year I didn’t fair too great in the game of picking winners and losers (for fun of course!  No actual betting!)  Hope you didn’t listen to me, and if you did my apologies.  Send all grievance emails to C’monMan@thisyearwillbedifferent.com.  But I’m back with a year under my belt, and new fervor for making good decisions.  So here we go.

NC State vs. Tennessee (-3.5)

Take NC State on the ML(+145)

Tennessee is awful.  I’m not buying this Tyler Bray hype wagon I’ve seen in the past couple of days.  Not to discredit UK’s win against them last year, but if you can only find the end zone once against the awful UK defense from last year, no one should be talking about your team (Except possibly that puke orange homer Clay Travis).

Boise St vs. Michigan St (-7)

Take Boise St at +7.5

Boise has lost a lot since last year…A LOT.  But they are still Boise St.  They find ways to win.  Look for Boise to get down early by 10-14, then make a Fiesta like comeback to win by 3 or lose by 3.  Michigan St. is another overhyped Big Ten media machine.

Auburn vs. Clemson (-3)

Take Auburn on the ML(+130)

Ditto from what my fellow football enthusiast stated earlier.  SEC vs. ACC?  SEC all day.

Michigan vs. Alabama (-14)

Take Alabama at -14

A top ten matchup with this kind of spread?  What is Vegas smoking?  Oh, nothing you say?  That’s right, they are sober because Michigan is about like Arkansas.  When everyone saw the preseason poll there was a collective “WTF?” heard around the country.

                So there you have week one in a nutshell.  Good luck in your endeavors and may you be blessed with extra ‘credits’ for the games at Dave and Buster’s.

NCAA Record (0-0)

NFL Record (0-0)

Disclaimer:  See below in previous post

8.30.2012

My GCP - College Football - Week 1

My Gut - where horrible instincts plant their flag:

Michigan at Alabama (-13.5) - I just don't see how a upper-echelon team in the B1G hangs with an upper-echelon team in the SEC; especially when that team is the defending national champions. I'll give you they lost a lot of starters on defense. I'll give you Denard Robinson is a helluva threat as a scrambling quarterback. I'll even give you that people are forgetting this is actually a neutral-site game at Cowboys stadium. But in the end, you still have Saban with a summer to prepare and the taste of a championship hangover still resonating from two years ago. They'll be ready. Alabama 31, Michigan 13

Auburn (+3.5) at Clemson - ignore the "at" part of the equation because this is neutral site too. Auburn finished strong in a decent bowl game last year and Clemson is missing it's best non-QB threat. Also, Clemson is a member of the ACC and ACC teams sometimes don't cover even when pitted against other ACC teams. Auburn 38, Clemson 27

Kentucky (+13) at Louisville - don't hate. It might be muddy.  Kentucky 17, Louisville 12

South Carolina (-6.5) at Vanderbilt - James Franklin cured cancer this summer. What? He didn't? Oh, sorry about that. James Franklin pulled in a few recruits this summer and may/may not have bought some ice cream for some people. His team still isn't better than South Carolina. They're not even within a touchdown. South Carolina 27, Vanderbilt 13

Boise State (+6.5) at Michigan State - Michigan State is a lot like the Baltimore Ravens for me in the NFL. They always beat me when I pick against them, yet nothing ever makes me want to pick them. No different here. I'd buy the half point and feel pretty decent about pushing. Michigan State (probably on some bullshit) 31, Boise State 27

My Computer - where it tells me I should be looking:

Southern Miss (+20) at Nebraska - Surprising to me considering Burkhead and Martinez are back for the Huskers and Southern Miss has a new coach and a new QB. Computer says Southern Miss should only be +12 LOSS

San Jose State at Stanford (-25.5) - Andrew Luck's not walking through that door. I think this is where you have to be careful with the computer's giving too much rank to last year. Computer says Stanford should be -33.5 LOSS

Wyoming (+31) at Texas  - I'm not messing with spreads this big. Computer says Wyoming should only be +24 WIN

Iowa at Northern Illinois (+10) - Not a real home game, just in Chicago. Iowa lost some key players in the backfield but this one would be based solely on confidence in the system. Computer say Northern Illinois should only be +3.5 WIN

Baylor (-10) at SMU - This one opened at a much larger number and came down to 10. I think Baylor might surprise some people in this After RGIII era. Still talented at skill positions. Can defense stop anyone enough to win any game by two scores? Computer says Baylor should be -16. WIN

Toledo (+10.5) at Arizona - Nick Fowles is now the new Kevin Kolb in Philly. I have a love-hate relationship with the MAC. I'll take it!! Computer says Toledo should only be +5 WIN

COMPUTER RESULTS:
WEEK 1 ATS:   4-2
SEASON ATS:  4-2

My Picks - where rationale falls off between the two above:

4 units - South Carolina (-6.5)

3 units - Kentucky (+13) - we're only going to be vastly underrated for so long

2 units - Kentucky ML (+350) - oh, you thought I could stop there for the Louisville game??

2 units - Toledo (+10.5) - will be the pick I'm most proud of if it hits because I would have never looked at this game last year



2 units - Baylor (-10) - especially if you're feeling good after the UK game on Sunday

2 units - Auburn (+3.5) - probably like this more but can't afford to really mess up the first weekend with my SEC-homerism

1 unit - Alabama (-14) - if you're going to be watching it anyway . . . plus computer has them at -15.

Mortgage Payment Risk: Medium
You've got roughly 50-60% of your bankroll out here if you're defining an average between 1-5% of your bankroll as a unit. The good news is you've got all these games spread out over 4 days so you should have plenty of time to readjust or back-out if necessary.

Cheap Hookers - They're prettier if you can get them at these numbers:
Central Florida (-16.5)
Minnesota (-2)
Rutgers (-13.5)
Washington State (+19)
Boise State (+13.5)

Let's hope I have enough pride to come back and vouch for these next week. Good luck.

Season Record ATS: 0-0 (0-0 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), +0 Units
Season Record ML: 0-0 (0-0 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), +0 Units

Back Home Again

"Hey it's good to be back home again. Sometimes this old farm feels like a long lost friend"  --John Denver
Mr. Bluebird On My Shoulder may have been full of shit in the eyes of Harry and Lloyd, but I feel I know exactly what he was saying as I sit down for the first time and pound out a new year of heavy-in-the-beginning-before-slowly-trailing-off-to-no-activity-at-all blog posts. I don't know if I feel it towards this blog or if it's solely the return of football, but it suddenly feels like everything is about to be right in the world once again.

We had a spirited, albeit late, start to this last year and still couldn't seem to get ourselves off the ground enough to make posting our opinions a regular thing. But I have a feeling this year could be different for the following reasons:

1.) As the main contributor up to this point, my amount of time at home has increased exponentially
2.) I'm tired of restarting this thing every 11 months
3.) Through hours of research and number crunching, I've created a system this year to measure teams which means I'm going to want to measure the system

The third reason is the key because it's what's going to drive all of my posts concerning both College and NFL football for the rest of the season. By taking an aggregate of a select group of Power Rankings systems available, I've developed the SHARPsquares rankings that will be recreationally used against the spread this year. I'm not trying to make any money off of this. I'm not trying to market it to anyone. I'm not claiming I came up with any of the raw data necessary to build it.

What I'm trying to do for once in my life is use a system that helps point me in the right direction of potential value while simultaneously keeping me away from games that Vegas already has surrounded. Additionally, I want something that will force me to be more disciplined than I've been in past years, picking games simply because it's the only thing on and/or it's the biggest game of the week and I really wanted to watch it anyway. I recently read a quote in a preseason magazine that said it's much better to go 4-1 in a weekend, than 14-11. After thinking more about it, I realized you'd have to go 15-11 just to match the performance of a 4-1 weekend. That's 21 more games!

What this also made me realize is that my eagerness to have a horse in the race and penchant for picking bad horses was not the only reason I was unsuccessful. In order to be break even, you have to hit at a 52.4% clip. Of the 67 systems linked on Todd Beck's The Prediction Tracker (the crux of my research the last 4 weeks and an innovation I'm guessing a lot of people don't realize exists), only 9 systems hit at this clip. That's less than 14%. These were systems developed by experts in cahoots with bright minds with strong computers and less than 14% could even pull off a small profit.

So here's what I thought: If each of those systems individually can't pull it off, what could the average of a select group of those systems look like over the course of a season? And that's how we arrived at the SHARPsquares rankings. We've tinkered with some of the calculations to arrive at an average, but we feel we have one of the best representations on the Internet of readily-available power rankings combined into one aggregate system.

Now, I would be lying if I said I'm willing to blindly wander off into the night with my macro-enabled Excel program. I still believe that I know SOMETHING about this sport, it's just that I've only now convinced myself that I know EVERYTHING about this sport. There will still be homer picks centered around UK as early as Week 1 and probably all the way through their bowl game - need proof I'm a homer now? There will still be games I select that the system does not point out at all. I will still miss A LOT of picks. Those things I can promise you.

So the format of each post will be a bit different for my picks for the week. I'll first highlight the games my gut said something about, which will usually be the marquee games of the week, SEC games, UK games, or games that I feel I've picked up an angle on throughout the season because of information or observation. I'll also be highlighting the games that the system shows a large enough discrepancy between the updated line and system's line. Finally, I'll make my picks based on some combination or outweighing factor of one over the other. As an added feature, I'll be ranking my selections based on how many units they're worth, with the games with the highest units representing the games I have the most confidence in. I'm defining a unit as the smallest amount you would theoretically wager on any game, up to the max amount you would wager being my highest 5-unit pick.

My Gut, My Computer, My Picks. My GCP. Every week. From here until the Super Bowl.

Season Record ATS: 0-0 (0-0 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), +0 Units
Season Record ML: 0-0 (0-0 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), +0 Units

DISCLAIMER: WE DO NOT CONDONE GAMBLING OF ANY KIND AND YOU SHOULD NOT USE THIS SITE TO ACTUALLY SELECT SPREADS YOU'LL WAGER REAL MONEY ON. THAT'S GROCERIES FOR YOUR FAMILY AND I REFUSE TO HAVE ANY OF THAT ON THE SHOULDERS OF A STUPID SPREADSHEET I MADE. THIS IS STRICTLY FOR FUN AND SO (ASSUMING THE INTERNET STILL EXISTS IN 10 YEARS) WE CAN ALL LOOK BACK AND LAUGH AT OURSELVES.

8.21.2012

The Initial SharpSquares Power Rankings

This is my first iteration of these rankings but I wanted to capture something. They're by no means complete or "usable" at this point but it's at least proof that I could bang some type of number out.

SHARPsquares is BACK!!!!
 

Alabama  89.677
LSU  86.410
USC  84.253
Oregon  81.947
Oklahoma St  81.870
Oklahoma  80.593
Stanford  78.702
Arkansas  78.321
Florida St  77.932
Wisconsin  77.820
Georgia  77.041
Michigan  75.224
South Carolina  75.112
TCU  73.826
West Virginia  73.801
Boise St  73.611
Michigan St  73.316
Notre Dame  73.162
Texas  72.820
Florida  72.246
Ohio St  72.001
Virginia Tech  71.413
Nebraska  70.947
Baylor  70.461
Kansas St  70.406
Texas A&M  70.373
Missouri  69.996
Houston  69.741
Auburn  69.500
Clemson  68.666
BYU  67.989
Utah  67.973
NC State  66.685
Tennessee  66.513
Mississippi St  65.829
California  65.382
Georgia Tech  65.347
Cincinnati  65.171
Louisville  65.141
Vanderbilt  64.911
Tulsa  64.346
Washington  64.110
Miami  64.019
USF  63.416
Louisiana Tech  63.201
Southern Miss  63.185
Iowa  63.112
North Carolina  63.046
Rutgers  63.010
Penn St  62.339
Boston College  62.108
Texas Tech  61.749
Oregon St  61.477
Northern Illinois  60.781
Nevada  60.711
Pittsburgh  60.571
Illinois  60.311
Purdue  60.291
Iowa St  59.764
Connecticut  59.640
UCLA  59.551
Arizona St  59.296
Virginia  58.480
Northwestern  58.210
UCF  58.151
Arizona  57.959
Temple  57.639
Toledo  57.279
Ohio  56.969
Wake Forest  56.849
Western Michigan  56.552
SMU  55.729
Washington St  55.173
San Diego St  55.028
Air Force  54.724
Navy  54.554
Syracuse  53.953
Kentucky  53.791
FIU  53.501
Duke  52.896
Utah St  52.841
Marshall  52.780
WKU  52.592
Arkansas St  52.485
Minnesota  52.479
Wyoming  52.464
Miami  52.156
Mississippi  52.038
Louisiana  51.842
East Carolina  51.822
Maryland  51.678
Bowling Green  51.487
Fresno St  50.864
Colorado  50.346
Kent St  49.120
Army  48.731
Ball St  48.545
ULM  48.124
San Jose St  47.488
North Texas  46.994
Kansas  46.909
UTEP  46.896
Hawaii  46.557
Eastern Michigan  46.129
Rice  44.715
Indiana  44.641
Central Michigan  44.385
Troy  42.508
Colorado St  42.375
Buffalo  41.121
Idaho  39.394
UAB  38.919
New Mexico St  37.260
UNLV  36.499
Massachusetts  35.500
Middle Tennessee  35.481
Tulane  33.465
New Mexico  33.392
Memphis  33.254
South Alabama  32.684
Florida Atlantic  31.774
Texas St  30.241
UTSA  28.204
Akron  27.193