My GCP - College Football - Week 1

My Gut - where horrible instincts plant their flag:

Michigan at Alabama (-13.5) - I just don't see how a upper-echelon team in the B1G hangs with an upper-echelon team in the SEC; especially when that team is the defending national champions. I'll give you they lost a lot of starters on defense. I'll give you Denard Robinson is a helluva threat as a scrambling quarterback. I'll even give you that people are forgetting this is actually a neutral-site game at Cowboys stadium. But in the end, you still have Saban with a summer to prepare and the taste of a championship hangover still resonating from two years ago. They'll be ready. Alabama 31, Michigan 13

Auburn (+3.5) at Clemson - ignore the "at" part of the equation because this is neutral site too. Auburn finished strong in a decent bowl game last year and Clemson is missing it's best non-QB threat. Also, Clemson is a member of the ACC and ACC teams sometimes don't cover even when pitted against other ACC teams. Auburn 38, Clemson 27

Kentucky (+13) at Louisville - don't hate. It might be muddy.  Kentucky 17, Louisville 12

South Carolina (-6.5) at Vanderbilt - James Franklin cured cancer this summer. What? He didn't? Oh, sorry about that. James Franklin pulled in a few recruits this summer and may/may not have bought some ice cream for some people. His team still isn't better than South Carolina. They're not even within a touchdown. South Carolina 27, Vanderbilt 13

Boise State (+6.5) at Michigan State - Michigan State is a lot like the Baltimore Ravens for me in the NFL. They always beat me when I pick against them, yet nothing ever makes me want to pick them. No different here. I'd buy the half point and feel pretty decent about pushing. Michigan State (probably on some bullshit) 31, Boise State 27

My Computer - where it tells me I should be looking:

Southern Miss (+20) at Nebraska - Surprising to me considering Burkhead and Martinez are back for the Huskers and Southern Miss has a new coach and a new QB. Computer says Southern Miss should only be +12 LOSS

San Jose State at Stanford (-25.5) - Andrew Luck's not walking through that door. I think this is where you have to be careful with the computer's giving too much rank to last year. Computer says Stanford should be -33.5 LOSS

Wyoming (+31) at Texas  - I'm not messing with spreads this big. Computer says Wyoming should only be +24 WIN

Iowa at Northern Illinois (+10) - Not a real home game, just in Chicago. Iowa lost some key players in the backfield but this one would be based solely on confidence in the system. Computer say Northern Illinois should only be +3.5 WIN

Baylor (-10) at SMU - This one opened at a much larger number and came down to 10. I think Baylor might surprise some people in this After RGIII era. Still talented at skill positions. Can defense stop anyone enough to win any game by two scores? Computer says Baylor should be -16. WIN

Toledo (+10.5) at Arizona - Nick Fowles is now the new Kevin Kolb in Philly. I have a love-hate relationship with the MAC. I'll take it!! Computer says Toledo should only be +5 WIN

COMPUTER RESULTS:
WEEK 1 ATS:   4-2
SEASON ATS:  4-2

My Picks - where rationale falls off between the two above:

4 units - South Carolina (-6.5)

3 units - Kentucky (+13) - we're only going to be vastly underrated for so long

2 units - Kentucky ML (+350) - oh, you thought I could stop there for the Louisville game??

2 units - Toledo (+10.5) - will be the pick I'm most proud of if it hits because I would have never looked at this game last year



2 units - Baylor (-10) - especially if you're feeling good after the UK game on Sunday

2 units - Auburn (+3.5) - probably like this more but can't afford to really mess up the first weekend with my SEC-homerism

1 unit - Alabama (-14) - if you're going to be watching it anyway . . . plus computer has them at -15.

Mortgage Payment Risk: Medium

You've got roughly 50-60% of your bankroll out here if you're defining an average between 1-5% of your bankroll as a unit. The good news is you've got all these games spread out over 4 days so you should have plenty of time to readjust or back-out if necessary.

Cheap Hookers - They're prettier if you can get them at these numbers:

Central Florida (-16.5)

Minnesota (-2)

Rutgers (-13.5)

Washington State (+19)
Boise State (+13.5)

Let's hope I have enough pride to come back and vouch for these next week. Good luck.

Season Record ATS: 0-0 (0-0 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), +0 Units
Season Record ML: 0-0 (0-0 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), +0 Units