Return of the MAC

I used to think that Tuesday night college football games were only for the most degenerate of gamblers, and while that is possibly still true, I have now come to the conclusion that they are also a perfect opportunity for those that pay enough attention to get a very favorable line. Now I will not resort to calling myself a MAC expert, but I will say that, over the last three weeks, it doesn't seem to be a conference that takes too much to figure out. I will go even further to say that the MAC is one of the only transitive property leagues in college football. 

For those of you unfamiliar with the transitive property, it is what UL and irrational UK fans use to back-up any argument they make regarding sports: "Well if we beat them by 60 and you lost to 'em by 10, that means we're gonna beat you by 70 biggins." You know who I'm talking about. They'll probably be sitting across from you at at least one Thanksgiving meal next week.

So to apply this to the MAC you simply need to highlight who the measuring sticks are in terms of class of the conference and then work your way backwards: Ohio, Temple, Northern Illinois, and Toledo. Then you have to measure out who the wild-cards are: Miami (OH), Kent State, Ball State, Western Michigan, and Eastern Michigan. Then you have to measure out who is absolutely horrendous: Bowling Green, Buffalo, Akron, and Central Michigan (yes, one of Kentucky's 4 close wins is one of the absolutely horrendous teams in the Mid-American Conference).

Taking those "rankings" into consideration, you can break down how they've performed against one another during the year and apply it to the current spread. Basically, the top tier is a touchdown better than the middle tier and the middle tier is at least a touchdown better than the bottom tier. And they ALL (with the exception of Bowling Green) score points. So based on that, here's my two predictions for tonight:

1.) Western Michigan (even) at Miami (OH) - Western Michigan and The Other Miami both have respectable quarterbacks that can keep them in pretty much any game. Western Michigan will score at least 4 touchdowns after putting up 63 against Toledo last week. Miami (OH) has only feasted on the bottom tier and this will be their first match up against a fellow MAC wildcard. Miami played Temple tough on the road last week and I feel like their defense can bend without breaking a little more than Western Michigan, meaning it will be up to their QB to lead them at home. Look for the neon-framed-sunglasses-wearing Redhawk faithful to be full of white zin from tailgate and leave the stadium with their 4th conference win in a close one.

Prediction: Miami (OH) 37, Western Michigan 33

2.) Ohio (-7) at Bowling Green - These are the games you live for in the MAC on a Tuesday night between a top tier and bottom tier team at the bottom team's stadium which means you get an overly deflated spread. You have a good Ohio team coming off three straight conference wins versus a Bowling Green team that looked lost on offense at home versus Northern Illinois last week. I would have chalked this up to Northern Illinois' defense last week, but luckily the transitive property allows me to take Ball State's offensive outburst versus them last night into account. Ohio will absolutely roll in this game and Bowling Green will struggle to get in the redzone once again.

Prediction: Ohio 41, Bowling Green 17

By using this method, you are absolutely guaranteed to resent ever reading this post and wonder how I ever convinced myself of this garbage enough to actually capture it in words. Good luck!!

Season Record ATS: 10-8 (4-1 NCAAF)