10.04.2012

Hey Obama...What do you think of my record???


Hey Obama…What do you think of my record?

                These locks just aren’t panning out.  I guess that’s why they say there is no such thing as a sure thing?  I don’t know who they are, but they haven’t met me…I’m just getting warmed up…

                I had planned to write a little more tonight before the picks, then I threw a load of laundry in with a full pack of cigarettes.  That is one of the biggest messes I have ever seen.  So tonight is just the picks, the reason you came here anyway.  Let’s get it.


Georgia Tech @ #15 Clemson (-10.5)

ACC game.  Tech keeps it close until the 4th when Clemson shows their true potential and blows the game out of reach.  Take Clemson at -10.5.  Junior Lock here.

Vanderbilt @ Missouri (-7)

Vanderbilt was supposed to be the dark horse of the SEC on the arm of Rodgers lite.  Not so much.  Take Missouri at -7.  Senior Lock here.

Georgia @ South Carolina (-1.5)

This game won’t be close.  Georgia, in my expertise, is another Arkansas.  Way overrated and only this high because of the SEC factor.  Take South Carolina and LOAD UP.  Big money to be made here.

West Virginia @ Texas (-6.5)

This line is just all kinds of wrong.  Texas sucks…Mark it down.  Take West Virginia on the ML here and you will be living high on the hog, or Mountaineer.

Michigan (-3) @ Purdue

Seriously?  Just a field goal against Purdue?  Take Michigan BIG.  There are some Parlays here.  But you have to do something right?

LSU (-2.5) @ Florida

LSU is good.  Blah blah blah.  Take LSU at -2.5.  They win this going away.  Florida plays the role of Georgia here.


NFL TIME!

Falcons (-3) @ Redskins                               Falcons BIG

Packers (-6.5) @ Colts                   Packers HUGE

Ravens (-6) @ Chiefs                     Ravens by 10…Really

Chargers @ Saints (-3.5)               Saints finally win one!  No way they lose this one.  Payton is back! (as a spectator)


NCAA Record (7-8)

NFL Record (2-7)

.500 is just around the corner!  I gotta go clean up tobacco now.  Good Luck!

9.27.2012

Welcome back, Welcome back, Welcome baaaaaack...


Welcome back, Welcome back, Welcome baaaaaaack….


                Perhaps one of the best weekends in football history.  Saturday night you got to see some of the top college football programs go at it.  Sunday afternoon had a 20 minute span where we saw four overtime games.  Sunday night a rookie kicker may or may have not made a field goal to beat the Patriots.  And Monday produced an NFL play that will be long talked about after this season has come to an end.  The best part?  The real NFL refs are back tonight.  It was fun and entertaining with the replacements for a while, but the games and penalties were starting to get out of hand.  That is all behind us now as the Browns and Ravens battle it out (Seriously, who thought this would be an entertaining game?).  Now, on to what you came here for….

Pick Time!!!

Last week was tough.  REALLY tough.  If you are here that means you probably went against me and want to do the same this week.  I wouldn’t do that if I were you.  I just wanted to weed out the people that were here for free picks.  Now it’s time to do work!

College Time!

Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech (-6.5) (Neutral Site)
Va Tech is once again underachieving.
Take Cincinnati at (+6.5) and possibly money line if you’re feeling naughty.

Clemson (-7) @ Boston College
Uh oh…ACC…This team almost beat Florida St. last week.  Too much speed.
Take Clemson (-7), they win by 20 easy.

Baylor @ West Virginia (-11)
West Virginia is good.  So is Baylor no matter what you heard.
Take Baylor (+11).  Close game here folks.

Florida St. (-17) @ South Florida
Florida St. is REALLY good.  This is my pick to play Bama in the title game.
Take Florida St. at (-17) and run!

Louisville (-10) @ Southern Miss
I hate Louisville, but Southern Miss is super bad and this line is super low.
Take Louisville at (-10).  This is where people that just refinanced their house should take that money!

NFL Time!

Patriots (-4) at Bills                         Patriots…Duh

Vikings at Lions (-4.5)                    Lions are PISSED after last week’s let down.  Lions by 15.

Saints at Packers (-7.5)                  Even Money!  Packers are more pissed than the Lions.  Packers by 10.


NCAA Record (4-6)

NFL Record (1-5)

Here is where perseverance pays off.....

SHARPsquares NCAA Power Rankings - Week 5

If anything went as well as we expected, we would never be able to appreciate anything. The point of this season was to install something and measure its success, and that's exactly what we're still willing to do. Last week was rough and just happened to be the first week we believed in this thing. But chasing spreads is all about consistency if you're in it for the long haul, so we'll keep putting this up and measuring how we're doing.


1 Alabama 89.989
2 LSU 83.669
3 Oregon 82.904
4 Florida St 81.205
5 Stanford 79.305
6 Georgia 78.866
7 South Carolina 78.530
8 Texas 78.314
9 USC 78.190
10 Florida 78.017
11 Notre Dame 77.945
12 Oklahoma 76.199
13 Kansas St 76.077
14 Oklahoma St 75.318
15 West Virginia 74.844
16 TCU 73.760
17 Texas A&M 73.266
18 Ohio St 72.044
19 Nebraska 71.675
20 Boise St 71.649
21 Baylor 70.882
22 Clemson 70.737
23 Michigan St 70.155
24 Texas Tech 70.067
25 Arizona St 69.725
26 Michigan 69.611
27 Oregon St 68.799
28 Wisconsin 68.387
29 Mississippi St 68.091
30 UCLA 67.215
31 Virginia Tech 67.063
32 Missouri 67.011
33 BYU 66.460
34 Purdue 66.388
35 Louisiana Tech 65.769
36 Georgia Tech 65.715
37 Cincinnati 65.579
38 Louisville 65.419
39 Rutgers 65.341
40 Iowa St 65.057
41 Arizona 64.914
42 Miami (FL) 64.895
43 Auburn 64.419
44 Nevada 64.225
45 Tennessee 64.027
46 NC State 63.783
47 Northwestern 63.647
48 Tulsa 63.525
49 North Carolina 63.471
50 Ohio 61.970
51 UCF 61.611
52 Utah 61.440
53 Washington 61.422
54 California 60.936
55 Arkansas 60.770
56 Penn St 60.585
57 Utah St 60.532
58 Fresno St 60.374
59 Pittsburgh 59.532
60 USF 59.250
61 San Jose St 58.803
62 Vanderbilt 58.400
63 Boston College 58.361
64 Connecticut 58.064
65 Northern Illinois 57.729
66 Mississippi 57.717
67 Iowa 57.657
68 WKU 57.198
69 ULM 57.118
70 Toledo 57.096
71 Minnesota 56.918
72 San Diego St 56.144
73 Illinois 55.405
74 Maryland 55.349
75 Western Michigan 55.033
76 Duke 54.977
77 Syracuse 54.235
78 Virginia 54.168
79 Kentucky 53.567
80 Louisiana 53.430
81 Ball St 53.387
82 Temple 53.369
83 Wake Forest 53.275
84 East Carolina 53.067
85 Air Force 51.742
86 Marshall 51.552
87 Houston 51.337
88 Arkansas St 51.324
89 SMU 50.970
90 Troy 49.840
91 Southern Miss 49.774
92 UTEP 49.556
93 Indiana 49.393
94 Washington St 49.004
95 Kansas 48.797
96 Wyoming 48.392
97 Navy 48.341
98 Kent St 47.993
99 FIU 47.722
100 Central Michigan 47.216
101 North Texas 46.931
102 Bowling Green 46.906
103 Miami (OH) 46.597
104 Rice 46.565
105 Hawaii 45.400
106 Army 44.955
107 Colorado St 43.809
108 Colorado 42.921
109 Middle Tennessee 42.446
110 UNLV 41.513
111 New Mexico 41.456
112 UAB 41.289
113 Eastern Michigan 41.132
114 Buffalo 39.649
115 Texas St 39.156
116 Idaho 38.427
117 New Mexico St 37.837
118 Florida Atlantic 36.903
119 UTSA 36.897
120 Akron 35.664
121 Tulane 33.579
122 South Alabama 33.482
123 Memphis 32.949
124 Massachusetts 29.974

Week 4 ATS: 21-28
Season ATS: 77-105

Week 4 SU: 36-13
Season SU: 136-46

9.22.2012

My GCP - College Football - Week 4

I'm actually going to abandon My Gut this week and give it one more week off to recuperate and hopefully regain some confidence coming back. The computer is where my belief lies at this point, so we're going to run with it.

My Gut - where horrible instincts plant their flag:

ON VACATION

My Computer is My Picks - where it tells me I should be looking:

Florida Atlantic at Alabama (-49) - This is one of the first one's I've doubted in a few weeks from the computer. Alabama is the top of so many systems that I'm afraid this one could be skewed. Plus 49 points is a lot. Computer says Alabama should be -60. 

Arizona (+21.5) at Oregon -  I don't love Arizona and I've bet against them every week. But Oregon hasn't been blowing teams out properly yet this year. Computer says Arizona should be +12.5.

Central Michigan at Iowa (-14.5) - Computer says Iowa should be -23. 

Wyoming (+2.5) at Idaho - The computer has been racking up on these types of games. This is my UPSET SPECIAL, MONEYLINE UNDERDOG of the week. Computer says Wyoming should actually BE FAVORED by 6.5. 

East Carolina (+16.5) at North Carolina - This involves an ACC team. I'm out. Computer says East Carolina should only be +9. 

Troy at North Texas (+1.5) - Another upset special. You somehow have a home team that the computer likes by 6 coming in as a 1.5 point underdog. Computer says North Texas should ACTUALLY BE FAVORED by 6. 

COMPUTER RESULTS:
WEEK 4 ATS:     0-0
SEASON ATS:  13-5

Mortgage Payment Risk: Low
We're keeping it simple after our Ball So Hard first two weeks. NFL is a very important day and the marquee matchups today just aren't that enticing.


Season Record ATS: 5-6 (5-6 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), -9.4 Units
Season Record ML: 1-1 (0-1 NCAAF, 0-0 NFL), -.75 Units

9.21.2012

The Rise and Fall of UK Football: As Told by KSR

Kentucky Sports Radio is the greatest thing to happen to the University of Kentucky BASKETBALL team since Jefferson Pilot Sports (and their horrible picture quality) introduced the ability to bring SEC basketball games into your living room on days when UK wasn't the Game of the Week. Not only has it revolutionized the availability of data and in-depth coverage, it has also championed the evolution of a blind-faith fanbase into an educated, blind-faith fanbase. It has exemplified the power of the new media - the ability of a blog, ranked as a parasite on the form of media totem pole - to single-handedly revolutionize the way the most rabid fanbase in all of college sports follows sports. I used a form of "revolutionize" twice in that sentence. That's how you know I'm serious.

I am a UK fan. I cheer for both sports adamantly. My first love between the two is, admittedly,  UK Football - I want them to win every single week and I'm disappointed in every loss no matter what the spread or expectation. I will also be the first to admit that I have been a KSR follower since what I consider to be Day One. I told all of my friends about KSR and screw them if they don't remember it the same way (this argument also applies to The Avett Brothers). I can't remember what brought me there. I can't remember what exactly it was that kept me there. But I know that it became as part of my daily work routine in early 2007 as checking my e-mail and clearing out my task list. I remember running down the hallway to find the first UK fan I saw when the live cell phone microphone captured Patrick Patterson's commitment. I know who Jai Lucas is and know why people who now frequent the site ask for any updates. I know why "Rob Gidel's Hairgel" is a funny commenter name to have. I've shook the hand of Kige Ramsey and thanked him for his contributions to the Internet. I remember being excited about Alex Legion. Shit, I remember being excited about Billy Gillespie. I remember when the only thing pertinent about Randall Cobb was that he shared a name with Randall "Tex" Cobb from "Ernest Goes to Jail" fame. I remember listening to the radio show and hoping they would finally do the wrestling superstars bracket they had teased for so long. I remember when it was commonplace for frequent callers like Carolina Steve and Hink to call in twice a show. I don't state these things just to prove I was there - I say them because I want you to know how big of a fan I was. How big of a fan I still am.

Matt Jones pulled off what every sports nerd hopes to do. He commandeered his fandom into a concise offering, to the point that he was actually able to quit his day job. And his day job was being a lawyer for Christ's sake. I entered their blogger contest hoping to just be a part of it, wildly dreaming the whole time that it would become such a large opportunity that I could quit my day job, too. To be able to do what one truly loves is a luxury, never truly realized by hardly anyone who truly loves sports. And Matt Jones has made it happen. He created the single greatest fansite in the history of college basketball. But, unfortunately, it didn't stop there. In my opinion, and Lord knows my opinion does not mean anything, Kentucky Sports Radio has both aided and eventually become the catalyst in the violent fan-turn against the UK Football program.

But they didn't mean to . . .I don't think. Let's look at the circumstances: At the rise of KSR in 2006-2007 (the Patterson-Lucas Era), the Kentucky Basketball team was suffering through what most what-have-you-done-for-me-lately fans had labeled as a boring brand of basketball, barrel-rolling it's way into what what would become an inevitable coaching change . It wasn't fun to be a Kentucky fan anymore, unless of course you liked winning a bunch of games and the chance to make a deep run in the tournament every single year. But I digress. It wasn't Final Fours and rings. It wasn't what we have right now. And if you believe you're entitled to what we have right now and nothing less, then you weren't happy with Tubby Smith. And this was the world KSR was born into.

The football team, on the other hand, was writing their own Horatio Alger narrative. They had suffered through a stretch of three bowls in twenty-two years and were celebrating the unexpected fact that their team had just snuck into a 7-5 season and a Music City Bowl appearance that saw more blue in the crowd than a Titans home game (sure, blame it on the fact that the Titans have red and white in their colors as well. You're probably who I'm aiming this at). 7-5 equaled ecstatic in December 29, 2006. And that was the product of a long-suffering fanbase who never, ever!, got used to winning. A bowl season was almost an unfathomable goal amongst a large contingent of LOYAL fans who only expected to see defeat snatched out of the jaws of victory. The Bluegrass Miracle (if you live in Baton Rouge). Lorenzon's behind-the-head pick against Florida. 134 total points and seven overtimes versus Arkansas at home. That's what they were expecting. And yet they still showed up to the homes games. Because basketball was good and as long as football was fun, this state was happy.

Remember a time when you and your significant other (at the time) hit a rough patch and somebody popped out of nowhere seeming to bring everything you really wanted in a relationship to the table? It was like they GOT you - they made you smile again, made you remember what it was like to be excited to seem someone again.

The above is the role UK football played to the entire UK fanbase during those lean years of basketball success.

Sadly, that UK Football team was adopted by people who never game a damn about football until, while still wearing their Converse 00 denim jersey in 2006, they needed something exciting from UK to cheer about. Suddenly, Demoreo Ford was a household name in the Bluegrass. Andre Woodson was Jared Lorenzon and Dusty Bonner and Tim Couch all rolled into one exciting athlete. Jacob Tamme was the new James Whalen (sp?). Keenan Burton was a winning Craig Yeast. And so started a remarkable 5-year run that left no one second-guessing their uneducated opinions about keeping this Rich Brooks guy around or wishing that Hal Mumme hadn't been such a cheating gambler. For the first time, maybe ever, people's opinions about UK Football had been shaped around winning and it's relevance had stretched far past the Waddy-Peytona exit at 11:30 PM on a Saturday night. It mattered.

Stevie got loose. LSU didn't convert 4th down.

Pandemonium. A basketball-crazed nation is suddenly knee-deep in Sportcenter's lead-in in September. And while the tried and true, long-suffering UK Football fan realized that this was a generation-making type of season, those looking for something to latch onto had subconsciously set a precedent in their mind as to how a football team should perform. Those that didn't know a draw play from a RB Screen only 14 short months before suddenly became well-versed enough in their own minds to know everything about the game of football. Those that would've never commented on the sport were suddenly (albeit irrationally) breaking down every play and second-guessing every bad call. The state of Kentucky football fandom had changed; and not because of any fan who had paid their money through all those 1-11 seasons but because of those that had decided to latch on when the latching was good. We won't say fair-weather, but only because they didn't have any way of judging what the weather truly was.

Fast forward through the second straight bowl appearance (and win) and three more appearances to come. What would've been considered success in any of those fun-loving, low-expecation seasons of yore had suddenly become the mark of a program on the decline. And while I can't argue that the program has declined in the last three years in terms of results, we were suddenly faced with a loud contingent of fans who expected something from a football team that made a living out of carrying no expectations. Because basketball was good and as long as football could be fun, this state used to be happy. But now, suddenly, with the insertion of a certain amazing basketball coach and recruiter, basketball was good again and football wasn't winning they way we expected.

I haven't mentioned KSR in seven paragraphs and it has been absolutely on purpose. Kentucky Sports Radio as both a website and a radio show had nothing to do with the initial decline of basketball and the rise of football. Matt Jones either. What they did have a part in is raising the awareness and accessibility of a program at the most opportune time for one sport and most inopportune time for another. While KSR revolutionized every fan's access into the program and the opinions of those that follow it, it inadvertently spotlighted a football program that was never supposed to be in the spotlight. At least not according to the funds the university provided for facilities, player development, coaching, and recruiting.

Remember when you decided to move forward with that person who made you feel excited again and then all of a sudden your old flame decided to rejoin the mix? Remember how you suddenly held that new person to a different standard than what you had only days earlier, judging their every move not for what they were doing right but simply looking for what they were doing wrong? How they weren't measuring up? How they were never supposed to replace what you had before but you were suddenly holding them accountable for all the ways they weren't your old flame?

The Kentucky Sports Radio-age of Kentucky Wildcat sports has been lucky enough to see the ultimate progression in Kentucky basketball. From being excited about Perry Stevenson's dunk in an NIT game to being ecstatic about Boogie and John Wall to being orgasmic about a 3-year progression from Elite 8 to Final 4 to National Champions. You can't decide to start a website and script a better series of events. And with it you see your blog's founder featured on ESPN, hired by CBS, quoted in mainstream media. You're now the go-to. But to be fair, in your mind, you extend your coverage out to football as well when the season calls for it.

I don't know if there are any football and basketball programs at the same school that are more negatively correlated over the last six years than the University of Kentucky football and basketball teams. That's not KSR's fault. But by doing their job, they've extended the platform on which UK fans can congregate to talk about all things UK, which means sandwiching Archie Goodwin and Willie Cauley-Stein commitments around the story of Ridge Wilson getting busted for drugs on 6th and Oak. News of the Harrison Twins and Julies Randle around stories of football season ticket sales being down over 30%. .

The key point of this is not to blame KSR for reporting news, it's to blame KSR for becoming too worried about their perception to stay as hopelessly optimistic about their football team as they stay (and are usually rewarded) about their basketball team. DLJ used to score 15 touchdowns and kick 16 extra points in a weekly prediction. Ecstatic posts about Kyle Wiltjer's latest YouTube video now precede doom and gloom opinions about the football team's upcoming season.

It's like they're hedging their credibility instead of sticking to their mission of reporting news in the most ridiculous way possible. That's the KSR I invested countless hours of unproductivity in. It's not the KSR that ends post with things like "Only 87 more days til basketball season" before the football season even starts. Or the KSR that provides more coverage of tents to buy tickets than it does to a football team needing more support than ever before. No, it's officially some unrecognizable version of Kentucky Sports Radio with a UL-like fair-weather approach to having a negative opinion about the team they're supposed to love regardless of record or losses or promise. And all they're doing is fueling the fire, breeding the hate and descension that is present both on the internet, at the water cooler and inside of Commonwealth.

And I won't be irrational and pretend that die-hard, non-KSR visiting people couldn't hate this team over the last three years. I'm the first one to yell, "THAT'S COACHING!!" after delay of game penalties in overtime. But that doesn't mean I don't irrationally hope that we win every game or get excited about what could've been. Or that I don't want Joker to be given the opportunity of another season with a revamped coaching staff and the ability to see this amazing collection of young talent mature. Or the chance to succeed with a commitment from the university to have this program climb the tiers necessary to compete year-in and year-out.

Remember when you and your old flame worked things out and then looked back at that time you started hanging out with that new person and just laughed and made fun of them? Wouldn't even matter if the stories were true, you were just happy that your old flame was happy, even if it meant making fun of someone who didn't deserve it. When things are once again restored, it's awful easy to forget all the bad times that separated you in the first place. It's awful easy to forget what that change of pace meant to you back when you needed it the most.

There was a time when the entire UK fanbase needed UK football much more than they needed us. This football team is not going to win a national title this year. There's no reason to book a hotel room in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. But only 3 games into a season that could very well determine the outlook of this program for the next ten years, this is the time to return the favor they provided us. But it should only be for those that want to be around.

If you're still reading this, I have one last simple request: Either be on or jump off. But if you do indeed jump off the UK football wagon, please stay off. Stay off the message boards, the comments sections, stay away from the water coolers. Sure as hell get off before we head to the Swamp. Sometimes you need a breakdown before you can have a breakthrough and I would rather breakdown with the faces of those I know truly care than have to listen to the two-bit wisdom of those that just need something to get them attention between now and Midnight Madness. That goes for your too, KSR.

Kentucky football is on the verge of making another one of those runs and I would much rather it be enjoyed by those that wanted to be there from day one than it be spoiled by those more concerned with how they'll look if they blindly and LOYALLY support a losing team.

Because basketball's good again and I'm ready for football to be fun again - with or without you.