When you continuously wrestle back and forth about what the centerpiece topic of the site should be, you tend to lean heavily one way and forget about the other side until it's time to switch back. While I'm not saying we're at a "switch back" point, we have unfairly left sports in the dust during what may be one of the greatest times of the year. I'm going to blame everyone else for this cruel, cruel outcome.
With only two bowls left (one and a half really), there's really no way to save our lack of college football coverage. I have to admit that the lack of picks has a direct correlation with the lack of confidence I've had in myself over the last month to pick a single game correctly (much less an entire post's worth of games). After an amazing January 2nd, however, I'm back to believing in the Beez and figured I'd put my ass out there just in time for the playoffs.
I'm going to touch at least one angle in each game that I feel most confident in and then do my best to throw a prediction out there. I hate all these matchups to be honest, from the storylines to the spreads to even the way the teams look on the field against one another. But when has three or more warning signs ever kept me from laying it on the line before?
Bengals (+4) at Texans - This is a matchup that you almost can't believe is actually happening in the playoffs. You have a Cincinnati team that is figuratively hobbling into the playoffs after some late losses and a Houston team that is literally hobbling into the playoffs after key injuries that have tainted what had all the makings of a special season. If you go back to their previous matchup in Cincinnati, you see a dominant performance by the Bengals until they decided to penalize themselves and turn it over just enough to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. I don't think they'll be as silly this time around and I honestly can't back a team quarterbacked by T.J. Yates, a player that I felt was overrated at his position in the ACC much less the NFL. This is an upset only because Vegas says it is.
Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Houston 16
The Pick: Bengals (+4)
Lions (+10.5) at Saints - This game is very interesting to me because I know how close the Lions were to covering during the regular season at the Superdome even though they played one of the most self-defeating games from a penalty standpoint I've maybe ever seen. As long as Brandon Pettigrew's pride doesn't get in the way again, I have to believe the Lions cover double digits. However, because of Drew Brees' ability to march his team down the field even when trying to run out the clock, I can't convince myself to single out anything less than two touchdowns without begging to be heartbroken. But I can convince myself that the Saints can hang 38 points here and I can easily convince myself the Lions can hang 24 right back at them. Add those two together and you have an important number, but you're not going to hit it until you almost think you've run out of time.
Prediction: Saints 38, Lions 24
The Pick: Over 59.5 Total Points
Falcons (+3) at Giants - I'm going to double nail this one going away. The Giants are receiving the Cowboys bias right now because everyone is crowning them a Super Bowl sleeper because of two wins over the Cowboys. Is there anyone outside of the Vikings whose secondary is more susceptible to the deep ball than the Cowboys? Is Terrance Newman aging in dog years at this point? This is the same Giants team who lost at home to the Redskins only a couple of weeks ago and who lost to Philadelphia . . . in primetime . . . with Vince Young standing confused under center. Tom Coughlin has more lives than a litter of kittens at this point. Atlanta will limit the deep ball with up-front pressure and will control the clock while on offense. Have you ever been watching an Atlanta game and start wondering if the other team has even had the ball during the half? You may tomorrow. I'm predicting both sides of this and throwing an upset curveball in their.
Prediction: Falcons 23, Giants 17
The Pick: Falcons ML (+130) and Under 47.5 Total Points
Steelers (-8) at Broncos - Oh my. I'll make it no secret that I don't trust Tim Tebow as far as I can throw him and you can take that in any context you'd like. It's not that I don't believe he believes in what he says he believes or that he's a wonderful human being, I just wonder if any human being can be that "on" all the time. On a football field, I have no limiting conditions. . . I will simply bet against him and even if I lose I'll feel like I made the right call. Point blank. Period. Even with sports having that ability to write stories you could never dream up, I can't budge off of this one. Even with my gut feeling that there's no way the Steelers can cover 8 points against a Browns- or Chiefs-like team on the road, I can't make myself do it. However, while I can't take the spread because of Tim Tebow's inadequacies as a QB, Tim Tebow's inadequacies as a QB will allow me to confidently take an already ultra-low under.
Prediction: Steelers 16, Broncos 3
The Pick: Under 33.5 Total Points
Good luck and remember: it's probably not a bad idea to go the opposite of every prediction you see during the playoffs.
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