My biggest problem with spreads and predictions is I like to touch a lot of games rather than focus in on just a few. I like the thrill of a parlay over the simplicity of a single spread. I like trifectas more than Win bets. What that preference puts me in danger of is a prediction record that may not look as favorable when compared to those who focus on single games and only their strongest of feelings, but I always like to have options so I've provided you with many as well.
1.) Texas A&M (-5.5) at Kansas State - Just looked up "trap game" in the dictionary and this was listed as the definition. What is Vegas thinking here? I think we're getting two things in our favor here: 1.) Nobody watched and/or acknowledges how close the Wildcats were to beating the Cowboys last weekend; AND 2.) Everyone is over-discounting how good the Wildcats actually are because of one horrible half against the Sooners. I'm going to act and play like I know something everyone else doesn't and pick the "upset" here for the home team, plus I don't trust A&M or Mike Sherman to call a good game.
Kansas State 38, Texas A&M 34
2.) Texas (-1.5) at Missouri - I can't really explain this one. Mizzou has played some close games, but nothing that makes me truly believe they can hang within a point of these young Longhorns.
Texas 42, Missouri 28
3.) West Virginia (+3.5) at Cincinnati - I will preface this by saying I don't trust the Big East at ALL, but I individually don't trust a playing-for-first-place Cincinnati team even more. West Virginia has been in this spot too many times before to let this game not come down to a field goal. It's an upset by definition, but it won't surprise you when it rolls across the bottom of the screen.
West Virginia 23, Cincinnati 14
4.) Oregon (+3.5) at Stanford - I have the same affinity for Andrew Luck at this point as I did for Eli Manning coming out of Ole Miss. I'm really not sure what makes him great in everyone's eyes, and I will have to have my wallet burned before I can ever be a moderate believer. Plus, I'm still fully aware that Oregon's only loss came in a turnover-filled battle against The Honey Badger and his Tigers. I'm labeling this Upset Saturday, and I'm predicting Oregon will win so impressively they'll start debating who the best one-loss team in the country truly is. Roll your money out of the Stanford cover pool prior to this one. The buck stops here.
Oregon 49, Stanford 31
5.) Oklahoma State (-18.5) at Texas Tech - Every year I seem to get a good feeling about a conference and a strong hold on how the teams stack up both apart and when pitted against each other. That conference has NEVER been the ACC. This year, I've seemed to gain a better understanding of the Big 12. Moreover, I feel I've really begun to understand the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Everyone is waiting for this team to come back down to Earth, but they're truly built to ride this thing undefeated to Bedlam. On top of that, Texas Tech's victory over Oklahoma should have been hailed as an upset of Stanford-USC proportions from a few years ago because this team really had NO business winning that game and probably wouldn't if not for the weird weather delay that sent the whole thing into a bizarro world. Look for OK State's defense to try and redeem themselves a bit from last week's nail-biter and their offense to auto-pilot their way to an easy victory.
Oklahoma State 52, Texas Tech 31
***HOMER PICK OF THE WEEK***
6.) Kentucky (+13.5) at Vanderbilt - I should stay away from even publishing this but I feel there's something that needs to be pointed out. Vanderbilt's atmosphere for a home football game is horrendous. Twenty-five percent of the seats will be taken up by Big Blue Nation and that means half the attendance will Kentucky fans (just give it a minute, it will make sense). It's a 12:20 start which always means a weird game and Kentucky has blindly backed into six wins too many times before to give up on this season and not keep this game as close as it usually is in Nashville. Look for the offense to control the game to allow the defense to do what they did last week vs. Ole Miss. And as long as Morgan Newton is kept up in Indy at the doctor's office, look for our quarterback play to continue to improve. The homer in me is picking them to win, but the spectator is picking them to at least cover. Only believe the latter.
Kentucky 17, Vanderbilt 13
Season Record ATS: 4-3 (0-0 NCAAF)
Good luck.
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