Lock It In Sunday

Well, I must say I'm pretty happy with how yesterday turned out. Besides Texas, all of my non-homer picks were nailed, including three moneyline underdogs winning straight up. Now comes the ultimate moment when you have to try and lock in a successful weekend by successfully wading through a Sunday of NFL. We got screwed out of a great Sunday last week and I fully expect to have the same thing happen this week because that's just how the NFL works.

These picks will be given in order of my confidence in them, so if you're on any type of "unit" system, be sure to take that into account:

1.) Bills/Cowboys (Over 48 Total Points) - These are two offenses that can score at will and two defenses that seem to get way more credit than they deserve (Dallas only because Rob Ryan has a twin brother). Demarco Murray will probably have a huge game once again and Fred Jackson won't be too far behind. This could be hit by the end of the 3rd Quarter.

Prediction: Take the Over

2.) Patriots (+2.5) at Jets - We're running out of time for a few of these teams to remain overrated. The Titans are probably officially past being given credit for the Ravens win, the Cowboys will start to get measured more accurately after they lose to the Bills, and the Patriots are getting beat by 10 on the road versus the Jets away from being the underdog they should be rather than the underdog they used to be. That means we have to take advantage now. Ever since the Steelers played man coverage versus Brady and the Pats, every team has exposed them. Jets will be no different even though they're planning on running the ball versus one of the league's worst secondaries.

Prediction: Jets 27, Pats 17

3.) Cardinals (+14) at Eagles - It's never fun to take a favorite by more than two touchdowns in the NFL, but I've got to believe that Vegas thinks this could be a blowout and that's why they kept it out of that 11 to 13 point range. Eagles literally have to win-out in order to have a shot at the Wild Card. That's a lot of pressure but something they'll be focused on today plus the Cardinals get the dreaded West coming East play against them. LeSean McCoy makes up for Vincent Jackson's crappy fantasy game for my team on Thursday and the Eagles roll.

Prediction: Eagles 35, Cardinals 10

 4.) Bills (+5.5) at Cowboys - Just like the Pats, we have to jump on teams going against the Cowboys right now before Vegas and the rest of the squares realize America's team is built to disappoint. The Bills are coming off a loss to the Jets that had letdown game written all over it after so much hype was built on non-football things like attendance and white-outs. Plus the Jets are making their annual march towards securing a spot to be playing for their lives in Week 17. I personally can't stand this Cowboys team from a confidence standpoint and just like I said I didn't think they could cover versus the Seahawks at home last weekend, I have to go against them here. Lots of points and I believe they squeak one out, solely because Sportscenter can't handle them being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in November for a second year in a row.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Bills 27

5.)  Jaguars/Colts (Over 37.5 Total Points) - YUCK!! That's what I'm thinking if I'm in the parking lot of Lucas Oil Field right now. Not only am I about to go watch a game in the year-in and year-out least attractive division in the AFC, but I had to watch Luck suck versus the Ducks last night and make me second guess our whole Suck for Luck campaign. I'm not sure if they could even afford to trade Curtis Painter if they drafted Luck next April, much less trade Peyton Manning. Colts offense is stalling right now and Jaguars D is underrated and that to me means little points. Always a risk when the under is already set this low, but I'm not worried about it unless the Jaguars score three touchdowns.

Prediction: Take the Under

6.) Ravens (-6.5) at Seahawks - This line is what it is solely because everyone is expecting a letdown after such a big win over the Steelers and Seattle gets a lot of credit for its home-field advantage. What Seattle doesn't get a lot of credit for is its quarterback play and that will be the reason I have to go with the Ravens - I would have to question my own sanity if I backed a Tavarris Jackson-led team two weeks in a row. Now there's no way to express my hate for the Ravens and their general existence, but even I can't pass this one up and at least give them one more chance to screw me when I pick them after screwing me so many times before when I went against them. The Ravens already discovered what happens when they don't get ready for this type of game versus the Cardinals, so expect them to do work here.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Seahawks 10

That should do it for the day. Check out that season record starting to sparkle a bit below (and yes, I did indeed throw out the Homer of the Week pick from being counted in my season record because no one in their right mind would actually follow a pick labeled "Homer of the Week").Good luck!!

Season Record ATS: 8-4 (4-3 NFL)